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Superpowered initiative influence9/26/2023 ![]() In Asia, the Chinese civil war was simultaneously roiling superpower relations. Early 1948 brought more trouble: a Moscow-backed coup in Czechoslovakia and the onset of then-Soviet leader Joseph Stalin’s blockade of West Berlin. The first half of 1947 saw one crisis precipitated by communist subversion and coercion against Greece and Turkey and another caused by the economic near-collapse of Western Europe. Diplomatic collisions and war scares occurred when the Soviet Union exerted pressure on Iran and Turkey in 1946. Indeed, crises are particularly common near the outset of great-power rivalries, when red lines are yet to be fully established, zones of influence remain fluid, and the key patterns of competition are still being set. The key to thriving in this era of great-power rivalry will be seizing the opportunities that crises present.Ĭrises are the norm in great-power rivalries: They occur as participants probe for weakness, gauge one another’s resolve, and measure their relative strengths. Yet the United States and its friends can use moments of high tension to address their military weaknesses, strengthen vital coalitions, and rally domestic support for sharper competitive measures. To be sure, no one should welcome the perils that are now coming into view. They were born of the urgency and creativity that flourish in a crisis. The great policies that positioned the United States for success in this twilight struggle-the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, the creation of NATO, and others-were not products of calm, deliberate planning. Yet Washington and the nascent Western world ultimately came through these crises with a mix of firmness and flexibility and used them as stimulus for many of the historic measures that ultimately won the Cold War. Fears of war were omnipresent amid repeated superpower disputes. The late 1940s saw near-incessant crises from Western Europe to East Asia. ![]() Crises are also opportunities for constructive action: They can catalyze initiatives and investments that will help the United States triumph in the protracted rivalries ahead.įor proof, look backward to the early Cold War. They vividly illustrate the stakes of geopolitical competition. Diplomatic or military confrontations illuminate the intentions of an adversary. So buckle up for a period when the world’s mightiest actors engage in high-stakes tests of strength.Ĭrises are terrifying, but they can also be clarifying. But showdowns with even the most roguish of rogue states aren’t as consequential as great-power military crises-incidents that have a meaningful prospect of war. These aren’t the only global flash points: Washington is currently laboring under the threat of renewed nuclear crises with Iran and North Korea. Indeed, given the way the two countries’ interests are now colliding in hot spots throughout the Western Pacific, the question is not whether they will find themselves in some sort of perilous showdown but when, where, and under what circumstances. ![]() ![]() House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan could touch off a serious crisis between the United States and China. In Europe, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has destabilized the continent’s eastern half, triggered a proxy war with NATO, and created an ever-present risk of escalation. Welcome to an era of grave and persistent tension, one in which great-power crises will be frequent and intense.
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